---
title: "Odds and probability"
url: https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/
description: "Entries on Rankplan filed under odds and probability."
published: 2026-08-19
updated: 2026-08-19
---

# Odds and probability

Published 2026-08-19

Entries filed under odds and probability, newest first.

## 14 August 2026

### [Reading a hand rank chart without memorising it](https://rankplan.net/2026/08/hand-rank-chart/)

A hand rank chart is really a frequency table read backwards: the rarer the five-card combination, the higher it sits. Once that is clear the order stops being a list to learn and becomes something you can reconstruct at the table from counting alone.

Filed under: [Card games](https://rankplan.net/categories/card-games/), [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/08/hand-rank-chart/)

### [Why two pair beats one pair: counting the combinations](https://rankplan.net/2026/08/two-pair-combinations/)

Two pair beats one pair for one reason only, and it is a counting reason rather than a traditional one. Working the arithmetic once is quicker than trusting the chart.

Filed under: [Card games](https://rankplan.net/categories/card-games/), [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/08/two-pair-combinations/)

## 6 August 2026

### [House edge, hold and RTP are three different numbers](https://rankplan.net/2026/08/house-edge-hold-rtp/)

House edge, hold and return to player describe three different quantities that are routinely used as if they were one. Separating them makes published figures much easier to read.

Filed under: [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/), [Table games](https://rankplan.net/categories/table-games/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/08/house-edge-hold-rtp/)

## 28 July 2026

### [European and American roulette: where the extra pocket goes](https://rankplan.net/2026/07/roulette-extra-pocket/)

The difference between the two common roulette wheels is a single extra pocket, and the whole edge lives in it. The payouts are identical; only the denominator changes.

Filed under: [Table games](https://rankplan.net/categories/table-games/), [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/07/roulette-extra-pocket/)

## 8 July 2026

### [Independent trials: why the last spin tells you nothing](https://rankplan.net/2026/07/independent-trials/)

An independent trial has no memory, which is why a run of one colour changes nothing about the next spin. The intuition that says otherwise is worth naming precisely.

Filed under: [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/07/independent-trials/)

## 30 May 2026

### [The craps odds bet: the one wager paid at its true price](https://rankplan.net/2026/05/craps-odds-bet/)

The odds bet behind a point is the rare wager paid at its true mathematical price, which makes it a useful reference point for reading every other bet on the layout.

Filed under: [Table games](https://rankplan.net/categories/table-games/), [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/05/craps-odds-bet/)

## 16 May 2026

### [Variance, expected value and what 'due' really means](https://rankplan.net/2026/05/variance-expected-value/)

Expected value describes the long-run average; variance describes how far a short session can sit from it. Most arguments about luck are really arguments about the second one.

Filed under: [Odds and probability](https://rankplan.net/categories/odds-and-probability/), [Bankroll](https://rankplan.net/categories/bankroll/) — [permalink](https://rankplan.net/2026/05/variance-expected-value/)